Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
