A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
